By P. Byrne
Offers undergraduates in surveying and estate pros with a transparent sensible clarification of a number of the administration recommendations to enhance their estate improvement judgements.
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Additional resources for Risk, Uncertainty and Decision-Making in Property
Furthermore, he should be able to see that decisions made in this way are ‘good’ in the sense that they can be seen to reflect faithfully his subjective beliefs. The method, and its application, is discussed in more detail in Chapter 4, by reference to a specific example. The following section of this chapter describes the procedure in more general terms, showing the way in which a question and answer session might be conducted, and the way in which this is interpreted as a cumulative frequency curve.
In this simple random experiment the list of possible outcomes is very restricted—a head or a tail. Most development projects are much more complicated ‘experiments’. They have a larger number of possible outcomes. e. the actual outcome is uncertain. Measuring probability Although we can now say that a random experiment or venture will have a range of uncertain outcomes, we have yet to say how uncertain the outcomes are. We have yet to measure the probability of each of the outcomes. Some outcomes may be more likely than others.
5 Information to assess a utility curve Certain pay-off No. 9 Money and utility Certain pay-off No. of W balls in urn (=q) 20 80 190 80 90 99 the pay-off for certain is 190, then a pay-off of 200 from the lottery has to be almost certain to be obtained, in this case 99% certain. Given these values of q, the ‘extreme’ utility values previously calculated are used to derive intermediate utilities. 9). In general between 6 and 10 utils need to be assessed to enable a reasonable utility curve to be drawn.